Matt Gagnon has conducted a fascinating survey of Republican anecdote and opinion on the gubernatorial race. It's long, but well worth the read.

Here's his best guess for probabilities of victory for each of the Republican candidates:

* Les Otten – 24%
* Steve Abbott – 20 %
* Peter Mills – 18%
* Bruce Poliquin – 15%
* Paul LePage – 10%
* Matt Jacobson – 10%
* Bill Beardsley – 3%