Alex Hammer on same sex marriage in Maine
http://www.hammer2010.com/2009/07/alex-hammer-on-same-sex-marriage.html

Thank you.

Looking at the people in the poll, the sample seems too highly educated (almost half have a college degree or more, it appears). This might be skewing their results favorably, as more downscale residents that seem to be under-represented in this poll would perhaps be more likely to vote against same-sex marriage.

You keep censoring any negative comments there Mike. Afraid of criticism? You must be busy.

This doesn't prove or disprove anything. This is essentially a paid political ad, not any kind of real policy discussion. If we have neutral experts who aren't involved in the campaign look over the issue I'd be interested. Until then it's a matter of whose propaganda you believe.

Without information on the methodology that poll is meaningless, unprofessional, and unscientific.

Jim, just because you don't agree with the poll doesn't make it inaccurate. However your comments on this site do make you seem a bit sanctimonious.

Every time a new poll is released the side that is losing ground always trots out the same tired BS, statements like "Without information on the methodology that poll is meaningless, unprofessional, and unscientific". The fact of the matter is that pollsters make their money and build their reputation by getting it right, and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is one of the best in the industry and they have an impeccable reputation.

The argument that they did not post the methodology is ridiculous. They polled 808 registered voters(a pretty large sample for a state the size of Maine); Maine's population is 1.316 million so the Margin of error is 3.45%; 97% voted in the last election; 93% are likely to vote in the next election; the participants self identify as 23% liberal, 37% moderate & 35% conservative; they asked at least 15 questions, so it was at least 20 minutes long; the questions asked are included in the results. So short of the color of the room the phone calls where made from what part of the methodology are you looking for?

So to your points Jim. This poll was done by professionals. This poll was quite scientific. And unfortunately for the Homophobes and bigots out there it was quite meaningful.

This is a solid poll. The chances that proposition 1 will fail are within the margin of error. The NO on 1 Campaign is doing their job very well.

As of 2003 almost 30% of Americans where college graduates and more the 50% had at least some college. And those numbers have been trending upwards. Further the level of education attained correlates pretty well with a propensity for voting.

I've said that once before about a poll on this site, and that poll was related to the gubernatorial election, not gay marriage, and it's not ridiculous. It's not my fault if you don't understand science and polling methodology. Self-identification is simply another poll question, not a scientific sampling method.

I don't trust any poll that's released for partisan purposes, from either side. Any poll whose result determines its value is suspect. I'd say the same if the other side released a poll with opposite results. And you know what? You saying they're professional isn't good enough for me, because who the hell are you, anyway? Some anonymous internet dude? How do I know you don't work for the pollster or the campaign, and aren't sitting in their office right now?

Not everyone who opposes gay marriage is a homophobe (not sure why you felt a need to capitalize that word) or a bigot, just like not everyone who supports it hates god. In fact, by painting people with broad brushes based on a single viewpoint, you're the one being bigoted. Pot, meet kettle. Happy to be a bigot over there? Bigot Inc. paying you well? Does hating everyone who disagrees with you make it easy to sleep at night, Mr. Bigot?

See how well this works when we act like four-year-olds and start calling each other names?

I am not on the losing side; I'm not on either side. I have no opinion whatsoever on the issue, and probably won't even vote on this question. I just don't care. If I were in the Legislature I'd probably have voted for the bill.

So to my points: You didn't address them, and your statistics about education are irrelevant. Who cares? You have something meaningful to add to this debate, or are you just going to revert to your four-year-old self and find some names to call me?

I assure you I do not work for any of the involved party's and frankly that's irrelevant it's just as likely that you were sitting across from Mark Mutty when you responded to the initial post.

And for the record I never called you a bigot or a homophobe ( and I apologize for my earlier grammatical mistake, apparently it doesn't take much to confuse you). I simply stated the poll was bad news for bigots and homophobes, but hey if the shoe fits...

That being said I do stand by my statement, in my opinion there is no good reason to oppose gay marriage and those that are working so diligently to pass this hateful proposition are bigots and/or homophobes.

I'm not sure how calling out a bigot makes me one? But hey nice try with the "I'm rubber, your glue" argument that worked out well for bullies back in the third grade as well.

While education is trending upward, the data Edouble cites are national figures.

The distribution of education in this sample still seems high, with more than 30% having a 4-year degree, and more than 10% with a graduate-level education. Seems high even nationally, and particularly for Maine.

I agree that more well-educated people do tend to vote more regularly in most elections. Just wonder if this will hold true for this election, which has two conservative issues on the ballot --- this and TABOR 2 -- that might draw out a less-affluent, less educated part of the electorate.

I do not have a strong opinion on this issue, but just hope the pollster looked at the education level relative to the state as a whole. Someone needs to ask Nate Silver if this is a good poll...

A few weeks ago there was a Kos poll that mentioned question one. I think Mike already posted on it.

Here it is: http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/9/16/ME/376QUESTION

Someone needs to ask Nate Silver if this is a good poll...

QFT

Analysis: Gay Marriage Ban is Underdog in Maine

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/analysis-gay-marriage-ban-is-unde...

To quote Nate "I'd lay about 3 to 1 against the marriage ban passing."

Thanks EDouble for the 538 link, I just saw it a few minutes ago and was considering posting it here as well.

As for comment deletions, I've always had a policy of deleting comments that attack people instead of arguments. Feel free to disagree with posts and comments, but do it politely and without resorting to ad hominem insults.