A lot has happened over the last couple days. There's yet another poll out, there's a new issue in the news and Susan Collins has begun her TV advertising earlier than expected (Maine political analysts Anthony Corrado and Christian Potholm predicted that ads would start in late August or early September). What does all this mean for the race for US Senate?

First, the Allen campaign and his supporters have handled the BIW development very well. They've succeeded in blunting Collins' attack and highlighting Allen's support from the iron workers and the fact that they trust him to keep their jobs secure. Here's WGME's coverage and interview with the congressman:

This issue isn't about getting the votes of the workers and their families – Allen seems to have their support locked up – it's about proving that you can be effective in Washington for Maine interests and are close enough to the voters to know what those interests are. Tom Andrews never recovered from his 1991 vote to close Loring Air Force Base, and it played a big role in the end of his political career at the hands of Olympia Snowe in '94. I have no doubt that both campaigns have studied that race closely; it's the last time two members of Maine's congressional delegation faced-off against each other for a senate seat.

Unfortunately for Collins, Allen is no Andrews, she is no Olympia Snowe, and this is certainly not the Republican high-water year of 1994.

As the campaigns begin to take to the airwaves (the Allen camp promises to have ads up “soon”), Collins holds a definite edge. Every poll so far has had her ahead (by varying margins), she has higher name recognition in the second district, and she looks set to launch a paid media campaign that will attempt to paint her as a Democrat in everything but name – muddying the ideological waters in much the same way she did, successfully, in 2002. She can also count on conservative third-party allies to launch a barrage of negative public attacks against her opponent.

The sun is peaking over the horizon, however. Three factors look like they may tilt the race in Allen's favor in the upcoming months: money, enthusiasm, and the closing of the knowledge gap.

Collins has consistently outraised Allen so far, but Allen has managed to stay close (raising only $60,000 less last quarter), and will have more than enough money to launch a television campaign that will compete with Collins throughout the state. He also doesn't have to rely solely on his own fundraising. The DSCC has twice the cash on hand of the NRSC and they have already begun spending in Maine, recently announcing a more than $5 million ad buy. That buy alone equals Collins' entire cash-on-hand warchest.

Other groups and party committees will be involved in the race as well, and not all of them are buying TV ads. Some of them are helping to build the best field operation that the state of Maine has ever seen. State party Chairman John Knutson lays out some numbers in this video from the Presque Isle campaign office opening. "We have a budget like we've never had before," says Knutson, "because they firmly believe we're going to elect a US Senator." So far the coordinated campaign has opened 25 offices and has 50 full-time staff. Compare that to 6 offices and 15 staff at the peak of the 2004 election.

This year, the coordinated "Victory 2008" campaign is also joined by the "Campaign for Change," which is a bit different from the normal state-level presidential operation. Obama's Maine communications director, Jessica Santillo, explained the effort by email:

Campaign for Change (CFC) is a state party-based voter registration and GOTV project. It will be working to elect Senator Obama as well as benefit the entire Democratic ticket through its voter registration and GOTV activities. It is not like a traditional coordinated campaign in that candidates are not pooling their money together to conduct election activities through CFC.

The Campaign for Change is funded entirely with federal funds (meaning no “soft money” will be used). Additionally, CFC will not accept PAC or lobbyist funds. CFC’s funding will come from joint fundraisers and funds transferred from the DNC, plus any funds raised specifically for the Campaign for Change in the State.

It is, in part, a way of harnessing the enthusiasm for Barack Obama and making sure that Chellie Pingree, Mike Michaud, and perhaps most importantly Tom Allen are there to support his agenda when and if he's elected president. This is one year when there's no shortage of democratic energy, volunteers, and money and the state and federal parties are working to make sure that enthusiasm benefits the entire ticket.

The ground game will help to close the gap (a great GOTV operation is thought to have the ability to increase a candidate's total by about 5 points), but Tom Allen will still need to run a solid campaign from here on out to put him over the top. That means no mistakes, good earned media, and paid media that hits Susan Collins where she's strongest – her supposed bipartisanship.

I'm obviously not privy to internal polling from the Allen campaign, but their comments about the recent poll offer a possible clue about the state of the race. The Allen campaign insisted that the numbers were mostly the result of name recognition. If this is what they actually believe, and not a political feint, the reason why may be that their own polling shows Collins' support to be soft and based on a positive view of the senator that can be changed by increased public awareness of her record. There's certainly plenty of anecdotal evidence that points towards this being the case.

The Critical Insights poll (as useless as it may be as a predictor at this point) also has one other interesting feature – George Bush's favorability rating has fallen to 15% in Maine. As television advertising begins and people start to learn more about how close she is to the president on the economy, energy, social security, and the war, its likely we'll see some movement in the polls. The Allen campaign will be working to reveal her part in the failures of the last eight years and display her proximity to the president on crucial policy choices.

Her relationship with George Bush shouldn't be too hard to illustrate.