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Critical Insights

Bailey Pans Pollster

Dennis Bailey settles some scores on his blog today, criticizing the methods and results of the Critical Insights research firm, which worked with the pro-casino side on Question 2. He also faults the press for failing to question the firm's results.

Critical Insights fared poorly in my recent ranking of Maine pollsters, coming in last place of all the independent polls taken in Maine in the month before the election.

Another Poll Confirms Large Leads for Collins, Obama

Another poll, this one by Critical Insights, shows big leads for Barack Obama and Susan Collins. Obama leads by 20 points in the contested second district and Collins is ahead in her race by 12 points statewide.

The poll also shows Congressman Mike Michaud beating Republican challenger John Frary 64-23. If this result holds, Frary may garner a smaller percentage of the vote than Laurence D'Amboise, who lost to Michaud 70-30 two years ago.

The poll also has Chellie Pingree beating Charlie Summers in CD1 by 21 points and the beverage tax repeal passing 48-39. The survey has a sample size of 443 likely voters and a margin of error of ±4.7%, 95 times out of 100.

The AP has some interesting reaction from the Allen campaign:

Carol Andrews, spokeswoman for Allen's campaign, said recent independent polls show "wildly erratic results typical of a pre-election environment." Another independent poll released this week gave Collins a lead of nearly 21 percentage points.

"We are unconcerned and undeterred as we know that we are making the case with Maine voters that if they seek change they have to vote for it, and they won't get it by voting with Susan Collins," Andrews said.

Rather than being erratic, I'd say the polling in this race has been remarkably consistent. Every poll taken since the campaign began has given Collins a large lead.

(hat tip: TMR)