betting pool

Betting Pool Results: Legislature and Winners

Here are the final results:


Congratulations to Dan B. for doing the best job of predicting the statewide and congressional races, with JonB close behind. Anonymous wisely decided not to provide any identifying information to avoid the public ridicule of coming in last.

Lastly, we have the state house and senate races:


Several people came close on these predictions, and it was only the lack of a Green Independent victory in the house that kept KF from a perfect score. It's not the first time the Greens have messed things up.

Betting Pool Results: Referenda

Top five for Question 1, the beverage tax veto:


The whole field predicted this one losing, though most by a smaller margin. The only thing left to do on this one is argue about whether it was passed due to a hatred of taxes or the millions of dollars spent by out-of-state corporate interests.


Question 2, the casino referendum, was supposed to be the closest race on the ballot, but the final result was much more decisive. The collective wisdom of the betting pool average called this race almost exactly.


The results of the Question 3 bond issue were a big surprise for me and for most of the rest of the field, who predicted it passing by a much wider margin. JonB and Dan B. did a great job of reading this one and made up a lot of ground on the rest of us.

Betting Pool Results: US House

The top five for the CD1 race:


Almost everyone guessed within two or three points of the actual result. There wasn't anything surprising in this race since the primaries, when Pingree locked things up.


Frary seems to have outperformed some very low expectations in the CD2 race. Some even predicted the professor garnering less than 20% of the vote.

Duke predicted Frary winning this one 50-49 (maybe he worked for the campaign) and Jacob R. predicted a 71-29 landslide victory for the Republican (I'm hoping it was a typo), ending his chances of winning the pool.

Betting Pool Results: President and US Senate

The final results aren't yet certified, but the updated BDN numbers should be close enough to determine the winners and losers of the MainePolitics.net betting pool. Rankings were determined by taking the total error in all the predictions made for candidates in a particular race and dividing by 2.

First up, the top five results for the presidential election:


Almost everyone gave this race to Obama by a wide margin. This is the last time you'll see my name at the top of a chart. The Senate race and Question 3 sunk my chances of winning the pool.


In the US Senate race, almost everyone predicted a much closer election than what actually occurred, and a couple participants even gave Allen the win. Dan L., Duke and the students of Maine predicted a big margin for the lady in red and easily beat the rest of the field.

Election Prediction Betting Pool

Think you know what's going to happen when the polls close on Tuesday?

Click here to make a prediction. The winner will be announced on Wednesday.