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betting pool

Election Pool Now Open!

Make your predictions here.

Election Pool: The Wisdom of Crowds

I'm headed out to New York City this afternoon, so unfortunately I'll miss the victory parties and live results. That doesn't really matter, however, as the internet has already told me who will win.

Here are the averages from the 37 people who made predictions:

Democratic nomination
Mitchell: 28.96% Rowe: 27.76% McGowan: 22.63% Scarcelli: 17.56%

Republican nomination
LePage: 22.99% Otten: 21.88% Abbott: 18.34% Mills: 17.35% Poliquin: 6.87% Beardsley: 5.82% Jacobson: 5.52%

Question 1
Yes: 51.56% No: 48.11%

Question 2
Yes: 59.23% No: 40.71%

Question 3
Yes: 57.59% No: 42.26%

Question 4
Yes: 54.13% No: 45.87%

Question 5
Yes: 57.51% No: 42.19%

And here is the average from the Maine Politics all-stars, those who were in the top five last November and chose to enter a prediction for the primary:

Democratic nomination
Rowe: 32.00% Mitchell: 29.67% McGowan: 22.33% Scarcelli: 15.67%

Republican nomination
Abbott: 21.33% Mills: 20.33% Otten: 20.33% LePage: 15% Poliquin: 11% Jacobson: 9.33% Beardsley: 3.67%

Question 1
Yes: 49% No: 51%

Question 2
Yes: 60% No: 40%

Question 3
Yes: 61.67% No: 38.33%

Question 4
Yes: 58% No: 42%

Question 5
Yes: 62% No: 38%

Place Your Bets

The election pool at Down East is open until tomorrow morning. Make your predictions now!

2009 Betting Pool Results

See election pool winners and the full results at downeast.com: part 1, part 2.

Make Your Predictions Now

Remember, the 2009 Maine Election Betting Pool closes as the polls open tomorrow. Be sure to get your predictions in tonight in order for them to be counted.

So far we have a great great bunch of participants, including bloggers, state legislators, journalists, political scientists and campaign staff. Want to match your political predictions against theirs? Enter now!

2009 Election Betting Pool

Click here to enter the 2009 Maine election results betting pool! In the Down East post, I explain the contest and give a quick overview of the state of the ballot question campaigns.

Sorry I haven't been able to post more lately. The confluence of referendums and the health care debate has made my life pretty hectic at the moment.

Betting Pool Results: Legislature and Winners

Here are the final results:

Congratulations to Dan B. for doing the best job of predicting the statewide and congressional races, with JonB close behind. Anonymous wisely decided not to provide any identifying information to avoid the public ridicule of coming in last.

Lastly, we have the state house and senate races:

Several people came close on these predictions, and it was only the lack of a Green Independent victory in the house that kept KF from a perfect score. It's not the first time the Greens have messed things up.

Betting Pool Results: Referenda

Top five for Question 1, the beverage tax veto:

The whole field predicted this one losing, though most by a smaller margin. The only thing left to do on this one is argue about whether it was passed due to a hatred of taxes or the millions of dollars spent by out-of-state corporate interests.

Question 2, the casino referendum, was supposed to be the closest race on the ballot, but the final result was much more decisive. The collective wisdom of the betting pool average called this race almost exactly.

The results of the Question 3 bond issue were a big surprise for me and for most of the rest of the field, who predicted it passing by a much wider margin. JonB and Dan B. did a great job of reading this one and made up a lot of ground on the rest of us.

Betting Pool Results: US House

The top five for the CD1 race:

Almost everyone guessed within two or three points of the actual result. There wasn't anything surprising in this race since the primaries, when Pingree locked things up.

Frary seems to have outperformed some very low expectations in the CD2 race. Some even predicted the professor garnering less than 20% of the vote.

Duke predicted Frary winning this one 50-49 (maybe he worked for the campaign) and Jacob R. predicted a 71-29 landslide victory for the Republican (I'm hoping it was a typo), ending his chances of winning the pool.

Betting Pool Results: President and US Senate

The final results aren't yet certified, but the updated BDN numbers should be close enough to determine the winners and losers of the MainePolitics.net betting pool. Rankings were determined by taking the total error in all the predictions made for candidates in a particular race and dividing by 2.

First up, the top five results for the presidential election:

Almost everyone gave this race to Obama by a wide margin. This is the last time you'll see my name at the top of a chart. The Senate race and Question 3 sunk my chances of winning the pool.

In the US Senate race, almost everyone predicted a much closer election than what actually occurred, and a couple participants even gave Allen the win. Dan L., Duke and the students of Maine predicted a big margin for the lady in red and easily beat the rest of the field.